Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Hey Fox....We're Still Makin' Money in Las Vegas Real Estate!

Yeah, the general Las Vegas public is freaking out. You may have seen the report on the local news last week about home prices in the valley dropping. Well, gosh it sure would be a bad time to buy a home in this valley.
Or would it?

Actually, lets look a little deeper into the equation. Mortgage rates are still historically very good. AND on next year's taxes, private mortgage insurance (normally required on a home purchased without a large or any down payment) will for the first time be tax deductible. So, if that means you can now buy a home financed at 95-100% and still realize as much of a tax break on your home purchase as someone with stellar credit and a 20% down payment.. what's stopping you? (many people don't understand how much that tax deduction increases your available housing budget)

My guess would be people that are still hesitant to purchase are worried about all the hoopla being stirred up on Fox and in the RJ about 'falling home prices.' Well, we know plenty of people, from singles to families to investors who have already taken the next step and looked into what's REALLY going on. They're buying as many homes in VINTAGE VEGAS as possible. Why?

Because when they dug a little deeper into the housing data, and analyzed the appreciation and deprecation rates on a zip code specific grid, they realized that even if appreciation slows or remains steady in most of Las Vegas, buying HERE is not only still a good idea, it may be the best real estate move to make anywhere in Las Vegas for the next 5+ years.

Yes, there's bank owned repo's in Vintage Vegas, but not NEARLY at the rate as in the suburbs. Generally the foreclosures in VV are families that got sucked into bad loan programs which allowed them to buy more than they could really afford. The Suburbs are full of foreclosure homes that were bought by speculators who were counting on continued double digit appreciation. The real mortgage crisis is in the 3 to 5 year old homes.

Contrarian investing is about doing the opposite of what the "herd" is doing. The masses are almost always wrong, which is why there's so many listings, and so few buyers. If it's a "buyer's market", and it IS, why is everyone going to wait until EVERYONE ELSE is buying. That's when it becomes a seller's market. Supply and demand is everything. There's 25000+- suburban homes for sale and only 500 pre-1970 homes for sale. Jack reported yesterday the the ratio of homes for sale to homes in contract has doubled in the last 2 weeks (in Vintage Vegas, but stayed the same in the rest of the valley. Somethings happening.

Let me help you out a bit if this shocking snippet ommitted from the "scare you out of your pants 'good press' stories" that you've all been hit over the head with so Fox can sell more screen time to McDonald's still has you missing out on great opportunities. To see for yourself what I'm talking about click on the appreciation/depreciation breakdown picture below to view it full size in a new window and draw your own conclusions.


Analyze the data for yourself. When you "Get it" give me a call. I'll get you pre-approved for a mortgage that works for you, and Jack can help you find the right home, and help you make the right move. If 7,000 people are still moving here every month (and they are) then buying real estate (where you won't take the enormous loss much of the valley is concerned about) is still a great way to build your net worth!

-Steve Christmas,
Mortgage Consultant for Emerald Pacific Financial & VVV Team member.
702-686-2036 mailto:stevechristmas@gmail.com?subject=Loan

Thanks so much to my friend Jim Hull at First American Title for the great charts!

No comments: